Chris Cillizza is widely denigrated by conservatives as a Democrat political operative masquerading as a journalist. I only bring that up because he has written, for CNN, an article in which he predicts dire outcomes for Democrats this November. Hat tip to Lucianne.com for the link.
Cillizza writing this article leads me to two conclusions which have nothing to do with his topic of forecasting the midterm election. The first is that the new boss at CNN really does want the cable net to focus on hard news and eschew the progressive propaganda it has featured over the last several years. The second is that Cillizza has "read the room" and concluded he prefers to remain at CNN and to leave it at a time of his choosing.
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That said, what exactly does Cillizza conclude about the so-called "generic ballot," defined as whether voters intend to vote for a D or an R come November?
When the Democratic edge is five points or less on the generic ballot, the party has experienced major seat losses in midterm elections.
Now consider what the House playing field might look like with a Republican edge of seven points on the generic ballot. (Among independent voters, largely considered the swing votes in elections, Republicans have a 14-point edge on the generic ballot in the latest ABC/Washington Post poll.)
Cillizza considers the Democrat's prospects for November to be "catastrophic." He adds, of course, that much can change between now and November. Still, it's no coincidence that some 31 Democrat members of the House have "read their room" and announced they will not run for reelection.
Afterthought: Who knew Cillizza could perform actual journalism? I believe we see here an example of B.F. Skinner's maxim that creatures do what is rewarded, however unnatural that behavior might superficially seem.
