Ours is a de facto two party system. The two major parties are famously considered to be “big tents,” a reference to the range of people, ideas, classes and values crowded into each.
Realignments occur when the range of ideas being accommodated in either party becomes too broad. When pursuit of the minimum tolerable demands of one coalition partner conflict with pursuit of the minimum tolerable demands of another.
My mental image is of two somewhat bulky people trying to stay dry under a one person umbrella, inevitably someone gets crowded out into the rain. Democrats are feeling this conflict now.
Who gets pushed toward the other party are not the extremes. Rather it is those in the middle, those who already share some views of the other party.
One of the D’s major coalition partners, the Greens, demand party policy discouraging the use of fossil fuels - coal, oil, and gas. Another traditional D coalition partner, the working class, finds this is escalating their cost of living faster than their wages are rising. Buttigieg telling people who can barely afford a used Honda to buy an electric Tesla feels as elitist as Marie Antoinette suggesting cake as a substitute for bread.
As noted yesterday, Democrats meeting the environmental and social demands of the now-dominant leftist alumni coalition is conflicting with pursuing the economic and social needs of their traditional non-college coalition. As a result, the latter are migrating to the Republican tent where more of their needs can be accommodated.
N.B., Trump in 2016 was much less the initiator of this process than he was a beneficiary who saw it happening and was welcoming.
