New York Times columnist David Leonhardt has written (in a newsletter affiliated with the Times) the following about approaches to the Covid virus. Hat tip to Lucianne.com for the link.
Daily life in red and blue America has continued to be quite different over the past few months. It’s a reflection of the partisan divide over Covid-19.
These stark differences have created a kind of natural experiment: Did Omicron spread less in the parts of the U.S. where social distancing and masking were more common?
Leonhardt notes that mask wearing, school closures, restaurant diner spacing, and working from home were all more common in blue areas than in red. Nevertheless, the impact of all this Covid "theater" seems to have been minimal in terms of number of reported cases.
Nationwide, the number of official Covid cases has recently been somewhat higher in heavily Democratic areas than Republican areas, according to The Times’s data.
When I look at all the evidence, I emerge thinking that liberal areas probably had slightly lower Omicron infection rates than conservative areas. But it is difficult to be sure.
Not only have Democratic voters been avoiding restaurants and wearing masks; they are also much more likely to be vaccinated and boosted (and vaccines substantially reduce the chances of infection). Combined, these factors seem as if they should have caused large differences in case rates. They have not.
What Leonhardt completely fails to consider is that population density is much higher in blue areas than in red. Cities tend to vote D while exurbs and rural areas tend to vote R. Suburbs do some of each, with those closer in and denser voting more D than those less dense and farther from the city center.
As the very high rates of infection in extremely dense New York City show, population density is the biggest factor in spreading Covid as it increases one's exposure to others. High density involves getting people out of their socially distanced autos and into dense strap-hanger public transit and high-rise elevators.
I believe the blue areas behaved rationally, given their high densities. Less Covid anxiety in less dense areas justified somewhat less emphasis on masks, distancing, staying home, etc. so the red areas acted in ways that made sense for them.
The politics of Covid are a coincidence, actually both reaction to Covid and political choices are largely driven by population density. It is yet another of the many corollaries of Miles' Law - where you stand is determined by where you sit. In this case "sit" means where one is registered to vote.
