Politico in a very interesting article takes a deep dive into the demographics of political choice. It reports:
In a sharp contrast to a previous era, college educated voters are now more likely to identify as Democrats, and those without college degrees - particularly white voters, but increasingly all Americans – support Republicans. Voting at all levels of federal and state elections demonstrates this overwhelming trend of the “diploma divide.”
They compare districts where the population is above the nation average in educational attainment, with those below the national average. In most cases the "aboves" elect Democrats and the "belows" elect Republicans. As districts' demographic profiles shift from one to the other their voting patterns tend to make similar changes.
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The arguments made do appear to answer a lot of questions concerning political choices. My question is whether author Doug Sosnik has "oversold" the power of this variable to predict outcomes? I suspect he may have done.
It is worth considering whether the trend he observes is Trump-dependent or if it is independent of Trump's larger-than-life presence in our current national political process? In other words, have the college educated become committed Democrats or merely refugees from the Donald and MAGA?
