Wednesday, April 26, 2023

We Overestimate

The other DrC shares with me a YouGov chart showing how people overestimate the size of various demographic groups in the population. I post it for your entertainment, with a caveat. The actual percentage of households earning a million dollars is not zero,. It is less than 0.5%, fewer than 1 in 200 households and thus rounds to zero.

One reason for overestimation: the squeaky wheel principle. We hear more about some groups than their numbers would suggest because they complain, loudly and often. Another is that the media gives some groups increased attention because they are misperceived to be structurally disadvantaged. I'd bet you can imagine other reasons this occurs.