Thursday, February 1, 2024

Association Does Not Equal Causation

The journal Medical Xpress summarizes what "an analysis of Classical Greek and Roman medical texts" found. Hat tip to Instapundit for the link.

Severe memory loss—occurring at epidemic levels today—was extremely rare 2,000 to 2,500 years ago, in the time of Aristotle, Galen and Pliny the Elder.

The USC-led research, published in the Journal of Alzheimer's Disease, bolsters the idea that Alzheimer's disease and related dementias are diseases of modern environments and lifestyles, with sedentary behavior and exposure to air pollution largely to blame.

In the absence of demographic data for ancient Greece and Rome, Finch turned to a surprising model for ancient aging: today's Tsimane Amerindians, an Indigenous people of the Bolivian Amazon.

The Tsimane—like the ancient Greeks and Romans—have a preindustrial lifestyle that is very physically active, and they have extremely low rates of dementia. An international team of cognitive researchers led by Margaret Gatz, a professor of psychology, gerontology and preventive medicine at the USC Leonard Davis School, found among older Tsimane people, only about 1% suffer from dementia. In contrast, 11% of people aged 65 and older living in the United States have dementia, according to the Alzheimer's Association.

While some individuals living in times past (and in present-day remote tribes) reached quite advanced ages, most did not. Many died in infancy or childhood. 

Those living long enough to become elderly had exceptional immune systems as medical knowledge and technology in those settings were of little help. Perhaps having an exceptionally strong constitution is protection against dementia. 

The researchers' pointing to modern life as the cause of dementia may well be correct, but they have shown an association without demonstrating causation. An equally plausible inference from lower rates of dementia in those less-developed settings is that those who would have developed dementia did not live long enough to exhibit it. 

Today many who would have died young without modern medicine reach advanced age, and something like 1 in 10 of us get dementia. Modern medicine - helping many more of us to achieve old age - may in fact be the cause of increased dementia in the elderly. It's a trade off 9 out of 10 of us are okay with.