Writing at Unherd, Robert D. Kaplan looks at the implications of a weakened Russia, surrounded by the remnants of Soviet decay. A key paragraph:
Over time, a weakened Russia will likely be a harbinger of chaos across its periphery. Empires since antiquity have provided a solution to chaos. But empires, as they collapse, leave chaos in their wake. History has provided no solution to this conundrum.
Kaplan cites on-going examples of this in the Azerbaijan vs. Armenia war, and the Serbs vs. Albanians conflict in the Balkans. He speculates about issues with the Hungarian diaspora and with Romanians in Moldova.
Kaplan imagines break-away tendencies in the far reaches of Siberia and perhaps the Arctic. Meanwhile the Baltic Republics remain a tinderbox awaiting a spark, as tacticians fret about plugging the Suwałki Gap.
See his conclusion about the war in Ukraine.
US policy needs to be delicately balanced. The US military and economic support of Ukraine must ultimately find a way to continue, whatever Congress does.
At the same time, however, we should not want the war to grind on indefinitely. We should aim to leave Russia chastened but not collapsed, since that would lead to second- and third-order effects from Europe to China even more serious than those I have just laid out.
