Nikki Haley made a major “state of the race” speech today in Greenville, SC. In it she disposed of the idea she will drop out, the idea she wants to be vice president, and ridiculed the idea she was campaigning for 2028. She claims she will stay in till the last vote is cast, and I mostly believe her.
I believe she will leave her name on primary ballots across this land, I believe she will actively campaign as long as she can raise money, and I believe she would turn down the VP slot if offered.
I’m less certain about her protestations vis-a-vis 2028. And I think she believes she has a chance in 2024 if the lawfare aimed at Trump results in a raft of felony convictions prior to the GOP convention.
With no insider information whatsoever, I’m betting Haley thinks that she still has a shot at both 2024 and 2028. It requires either that something catastrophic happen to Trump before the election, or that he lose that election to Biden. She figures she comes out ahead in either of those scenarios.
If Trump is the nominee, wins in 2024, and does okay for four years, she is toast. His successor will be a Trump clone and Nikki Haley will be as irrelevant as Liz Cheney is now.
