Writing at The National Interest, military historian James Holmes examines the U.S. naval strategy of Alfred Thayer Mahan vis-a-vis Britain in the Caribbean in the fin de siècle 1890s. Holmes compares and contrasts the peaceful U.S. takeover from Britain with what China faces in trying to gain mastery of its near-home waters - the East and South China Seas - from the U.S. without warfare.
He concludes the two situations, while superficially similar, have important differences. These make the two situations distinct, and the 1890s turnover not particularly an indicator of how such efforts may turn out in the seas off China today.
Although Holmes doesn’t say so, for the two situations to become similar would require Russia to begin making moves like those Tom Clancy imagined in his novel Red Storm Rising. These would require the U.S. to pull much of its fleet back out of Asia and closer to home.
Holmes’ article is for those who like to think strategically, it won’t be to everyone’s taste. Hat tip to RealClearDefense for the link.
