Identity, Not Ideology

Josh Kraushaar, writing at National Journal, detects a trend in recent Democrat primary wins and losses which he believes others have glossed over. He writes:

White progressive candidates performed dismally in Democratic gubernatorial primaries this year.

But African-American candidates, all running to the left, greatly exceeded expectations in statewide contests.

The demographic patterns in these races are clear. African-American candidates were able to build an energized Democratic coalition of black voters, white liberals and younger voters to swamp more-established candidates in primaries. But white liberal candidates struggled to expand their support beyond the most predictable precincts, unable to build racially-diverse coalitions for their progressive messages.

It’s no coincidence that the two Democratic congressmen who lost primaries this year were both veteran white politicians who grew disconnected from their diversifying constituencies in New York and Boston. Representing majority-minority districts, Reps. Joe Crowley and Michael Capuano were uniquely vulnerable to energetic challenges from Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Ayanna Pressley. Both insurgents ran on progressive messages, but their victories wouldn’t have happened without the underlying demand for representatives that look more like the communities they represent.

Kraushaar concludes race will be a key factor in selecting a Democrat to run against Trump in 2020, giving Harris or Booker an edge over Warren. I believe I hear another tumbler fall into place in the continuing racialization of party politics in the U.S. This may not end well.