Thursday, September 6, 2018

U.K. Update

Barring some unforeseen gaffe or scandal, look for Boris Johnson to oust Theresa May as leader of the Tory party and, conceivably end up as PM. Exactly when it will happen isn't clear as this is written.

The Daily Mail has an update on the various tugging and shovings associated with a party leadership change in Britain. The sooner it happens the better if, like me, you care about the health of the U.K.

May's 'duck' has been 'lame' ever since she foolishly called a snap election, thinking to increase her majority. She instead ended up the head of a party that, while large, has less than a majority of seats in parliament.

To continue as PM, May was forced into coalition with a small Northern Ireland Protestant party. Its idiosyncratic needs have vastly complicated her half-hearted Brexit negotiations which have gone nowhere.

Johnson, a somewhat Trump-like fellow, is more popular with Tories than May and an unabashed Brexit fan. Until he steps up, the U.K. will be wasting time it frankly doesn't have.

Meanwhile the shoe drops on March 29 of next year - the U.K. leaves the E.U. This happens regardless of who is PM and what has or hasn't been agreed to beforehand.

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The only way to solve the land border issue between the U.K. and the EU's Irish Republic which (a) keeps an open border and (b) controls entry to the U.K., is to establish the border along the Irish Sea. This would require developing identity documents which permit Northern Ireland residents who are U.K. citizens free access to the U.K. while controlling entry of others. 

It would give EU residents free access to Northern Ireland but not to the rest of the U.K., and presumably Northern Ireland residents free access to the EU while other U.K. residents' EU access would be controlled. It might meet the needs of the Irish, North and South, but may not be palatable to the balance of the E.U.'s members. 

My guess is this semi-sensible solution will founder on the rocks of the U.K. not being willing to provide welfare benefits and NHS care for EU citizens resident in Northern Ireland. If the Irish Republic could get over being a Catholic country, the north might be willing to merge with the south, or maybe not.