Friday, November 27, 2020

Rethinking the Corona Virus

I have wondered about the relative effect of Covid-19 on deaths in the U.S. A quick search finds where I wrote about it previously, over two months ago.

A scholar at Johns Hopkins University has done the research. links to a PJ Media column reporting exactly what I suspected. 

It turns out the level of deaths before and after the epidemic hit are essentially the same. Lots of normal deaths are being ascribed to the coronavirus, I believe at least in part because hospitals get more federal money for such patients.

The scholar was forced to withdraw the study, because it was feared it would undercut efforts to get people to be careful about the Wuflu. But never fear:

Luckily, a back-up copy remains on The Wayback Machine, and we can still read the study.

You should read the PJ Media column and check out the graph. My conclusion as a non-expert is that people who would have died from influenza, heart disease or pneumonia are dying from Covid-19 instead.

They mostly would have died anyway if it hadn't come along. The remainder of the effect likely comes from people being more careful about their health such that fewer are getting flu or pneumonia than in a normal year. 

You should no more be indifferent to, or dismissive of Covid-19 than of influenza or pneumonia. All three diseases are stone-cold serial killers, to be avoided if possible, and carefully treated if contracted. 

However, it appears your odds of dying aren't much different than they were last year when nobody wore masks or avoided restaurants. One of the less attractive aspects of human life is that, sooner or preferably later, everyone dies from something. This study shows us not a lot of folks are experiencing “sooner” mortality as a result of Covid-19.