Sunday, September 20, 2020

A Research Note

Something people will be writing about, if the Ginsburg vacancy conflagration leaves any oxygen, is when the country reaches the milestone of 200,000 dead who had Covid-19. I hope when that happens, at least someone with access to the data asks how many of those would have died anyway during the prior six-seven months?

Clearly a substantial number would have survived. But many of those residing in assisted living would have died of their comorbidities - the other diseases that put them in the nursing home and made it possible for the corona virus to kill them. 

Many in nursing homes are on life's final slippery slope which doesn't always mean they will die within weeks or even months. The same is not true of those in retirement homes whose residents are ambulatory, continent, and with it mentally. These might live several years, a decade even.

I fear the fatality rate from corona virus was too high in both settings. In examining the data, these two groups should be disaggregated and examined separately. 

But before we conclude Covid-19 is solely responsible for 200,000 deaths, let's answer this question. How much did the death rate for this period from all causes exceed that of the same 6-7 month period in recent non-pandemic years?

What did B.F. Skinner prove to us experimentally? Answer: That behavior which is rewarded is likely to be exhibited at increased levels. Unfortunately, the government made it lucrative for hospitals to list deaths as caused by Covid-19. I think we can be certain corona virus deaths have been overstated, the question to be answered is overstated by what amount?