Sunday, September 20, 2020

Silver: The Senate's GOP Bias

Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight fame writes about the Republican structural advantage in the Senate. It is an encouraging column for us conservatives, and correspondingly discouraging for Democrats and progressives.

Because each state, regardless of population or size gets precisely two senators, small and low population rural states get the same Senate clout as does California with 1/8 of the U.S. population. There are lots of small rural and low population states, way more than half.

Silver has ranked the 50 states by the degree to which they exceeded the national average in votes for Trump.  By that metric my home state of Wyoming is the most Republican state in the nation.

Silver shows that in the 2016 presidential election, 32 states gave Trump a majority of their votes. In those states you would logically conclude Republican senate candidates have a greater than even chance of being elected. In only 18 states do Democrats have a Senate edge. 

The founders of this republic knew what they were doing when they designed the Senate. We are the beneficiaries of their wisdom.