Writing for CNN, a source we normally wouldn't cite, long-time political pundit Ronald Brownstein writes an analysis of the current American political landscape that, in spite of his anti-Trump bias, is worth reading. Some key quotes:
The durability of both support and opposition to Trump shows how the motivation for voters' choices is shifting from transitory measures of performance, such as the traditional metrics of peace and prosperity, toward bedrock attitudes about demographic, cultural and economic change. The immovability of the battle lines in 2020 captures how thoroughly the two parties are now unified -- and separated -- by their contrasting attitudes toward these fundamental changes.
Over the long term, the durability of attitudes toward Trump spotlights the likelihood of a widening rift between two Americas fundamentally diverging in both their exposure to and attitudes about such fundamental dynamics as the nation's growing racial and religious diversity, rising demands for greater racial equality, changing gender roles and the transition from an industrial to an information age economy.
Increasingly, campaign strategists and political scientists agree, voters are choosing between the parties more on their views about fundamental demographic and cultural change than on their immediate financial circumstances or even their views of economic policies, such as taxes, spending and regulation.
If Brownstein is correct, the Covid-19 nastiness won't be much of a factor in for whom people vote. Ditto the quarantine-driven economic downturn. He argues people will vote for the party which is on their side in what he calls "the culture war."
Ironically, the media bias in favor of the Dems serves as a demotivator for their voters, as it leaves the impression they are winning without needing to vote. Conversely, it motivates GOP voters who feel their way of life is under attack and they really need to act (vote).
Perhaps this explains the enthusiasm gap pollsters keep finding between excited GOPs and blasé Dems. Or maybe it's just that Trump is more a spellbinder than tired, foggy old Joe.
