Instapundit links to a book review at TaxProf Blog, which features the work of Dean Paul L. Caron of Pepperdine U's law school. He reviews a book - Welcome to the 'Turbulent Twenties' - representing the collaboration of sociologist Jack Goldstone and mathematician Peter Turchin. Over 20 years ago Goldstone predicted:
According to this Demographic-Structural Theory, in the 21st century, America was likely to get a populist, America-first leader who would sow a whirlwind of conflict.
Then 10 years ago Turchin ran the numbers:
Before Trump was elected, Turchin published his prediction that the U.S. was headed for the “Turbulent Twenties,” forecasting a period of growing instability in the United States and western Europe.
The authors argue:
Across history, what creates the risk of political instability is the behavior of elites, who all too often react to long-term increases in population by committing three cardinal sins.
- First, faced with a surge of labor that dampens growth in wages and productivity, elites seek to take a larger portion of economic gains for themselves, driving up inequality.
- Second, facing greater competition for elite wealth and status, they tighten up the path to mobility to favor themselves and their progeny.
- Third, anxious to hold on to their rising fortunes, they do all they can to resist taxation of their wealth and profits.
Check out their graph, which shows political instability today resembles nothing so much as the period leading up to our 1860s Civil War.
Are they correct? Let's hope they're wrong. I'm no expert, but it sorta feels right.
