When RealClearPolitics' Sean Trende writes political analysis, I always pay attention and I often agree with his conclusions. Today he sketches out a path to victory for Trump, which he freely admits is far from a prediction of it happening.
Trende cites three factors which help the Trump cause. His explanations of these are worth reading.
(1) Trump’s job approval solidifies.
(2) The economy continues to improve.
(3) Biden’s problems with the base are real.
He concludes:
None of this is to be taken as a prediction as such – this is a race that could go either way and where I still view Biden as the favorite. With that said, the storyline sketched out above is perfectly realistic.
What I see is that Trump is in roughly the same position he was in four years ago, when he won. Add to that the fact that incumbents normally win reelection. And of course Democrats keep nominating seriously unattractive candidates. I am therefore mildly optimistic.
