Thursday, May 2, 2024

Selection Bias

Matt Margolis at PJ Media recounts what Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. has said about “red state” people, shorthand for conservatives. He thinks they’re stupid or ill-informed because they watch Fox News.

RFK Jr. says he reaches this conclusion from people he’s talked to following speeches he’s given in red states.

There’s no difference between the reaction I get from liberal college kids and red state audiences because I'm talking about basic American values. And you know, the only difference is that afterwards, the Republican audiences come up and say, "How come I never heard any of this before?"

I believe he’s had this experience. There are liberals in red states just like there are conservatives in blue states, in each case they are a beleaguered minority. I was a conservative in a blue state for decades, before moving to a red state..

In a red state, what people are in an audience for a speaker named “Robert Kennedy?” He wants to imagine they are Republicans. I don’t believe it. 

RFK Jr. would mostly draw an audience of disaffected liberals who resent their minority status. He’s saying things their local Republican politicians don’t say. 

His audience of the disaffected likes what he says and he assumes they are representative of the red state. He’s “preaching to the choir” and doesn’t realize it. Social scientists call this error “selection bias.”