Thursday, October 17, 2019

Brexit Update

Various sources including Business Insider and The Sun (U.K.) are reporting Boris Johnson has reached a Brexit deal with the EU. Now he has to round up a majority to pass it in Parliament.

The main sticking point has been the so-called “backstop” to prevent the erection of a hard border between Northern Ireland (part of the U.K.) and the Republic of Ireland, a continuing member of the EU. Various rumors suggest they found a way to finesse this issue that meets customs needs and yet avoids conventional border checkpoints.

A major help in Johnson getting the deal through Parliament is that “European Commission boss” Jean Claude Juncker ruled out any extensions to the Oct. 31 deadline. This means MPs pass the new “deal” or leave with no deal.

A complicating factor is that the Democratic Unionist Party of Northern Ireland, part of Johnson’s coalition government, does not support the new “deal” as it treats NI differently than the rest of the U.K. Their lack of support will have to be balanced by winning the votes of Labor or Social Democrat MPs who favor leaving the EU - not an easy "get."

Ceteris paribus, a “deal” exit would be preferable to a “no deal” leaving assuming the eventual deal doesn’t cost the Brits too much sought-for sovereignty. If Johnson can accomplish this feat after two PMs failed, he will be seen as part-magician, very lucky or both.