Monday, October 21, 2019

The Irish Issue ... Yet Again

In The Atlantic, a nice article on a possible reunification of Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland. As noted, this could come about as a result of Brexit, if it ever happens, or because Scotland has voted for independence making NI an inconveniently distant province, or because those who favor reunification are gaining population towards a majority in NI.

The article mentions that incomes in NI are much lower than in the Republic, and that it subsists on subsidies from London. It also notes that costs of living are higher in the Republic, so perhaps the difference is more apparent than real.

The article doesn't mention the parallels between Germany reabsorbing East Germany after the fall of the Wall, and the Republic absorbing NI should it vote to do so, with the Brits gone. Reunifying cost Germany billions, and continues to require subsidies to this day.

Is Dublin prepared to subsidize NI more or less forever, as London has done? Are the Irish prepared to listen to NI whining about how Irish health care is inferior to, or more costly than, the NHS? Have they considered the political ramifications of adding as citizens a group of unionist voters who have not wished the Republic well?

It would be a real zinger if NI votes to merge and the Republic replies, "No thanks, we wish you well, go your own way." Given Germany's experience, that would be the Republic's (at least economically) rational choice. Like Germany, however, it is not one I'd expect the Republic to make.