An Offshore Neighbor’s View of China

RealClearWorld links to a Taipei Times article which says interesting things about the evolution of the PRC.

The 1990s was the decade when China went from poverty to development, and the 2020s are set to be the decade when it slips from development into decline.

Economically, the US’ trade and technology sanctions and the outflow of foreign businesses are likely to result in economic decline in China, just as Japan slipped into decline in the 1990s.

Socially, the turmoil in Hong Kong, China’s inability to respond to Hong Kongers’ demands for direct elections and the reliance on police violence against young protesters would also lead to domestic economic decline and increased unemployment.

Like Japan, China has a rapidly aging population, exacerbated by the decades-long one child policy. Also like Japan, the PRC hasn’t an entirely market-based economy; the resultant inefficiencies build up over time. Has the PRC’s tipping point been reached? Time will tell.