China’s total fertility rate — an estimate of the number of babies a woman would have over her lifetime — has fallen to 1.6 children per woman, and for years has generally remained below the “replacement” level of 2.1. That means China could soon see a shrinking population and a work force too small to support its pensioners.Meanwhile, the rate in Japan has dropped to 1.4 children per woman. As COTTonLINE has long noted, it is likely China is following the same boom-and-bust cycle Japan followed, albeit 20+ years later.
As with the Soviets, our logical strategy is to wait out China’s deterioration. It makes you wonder which nation will be the next challenger, after China. Perhaps India or Brazil?
