Monday, July 15, 2024

Trump Chooses J. D. Vance

On the opening day of the Republican National Convention, it was announced today that former President Donald Trump has chosen Sen. J. D. Vance (R-OH) as his running mate to be Vice President. Fox News has a brief Vance biography.

Trump has been (I think) deliberately ambiguous about military aid to Ukraine, Vance has been unambiguously opposed. 

Opposition was an option for a Senator, it will be interesting to see if Vance modifies it at all as a VP candidate. If he doesn't, it may give us a clearer view of Trump's policy vis-a-vis that conflict.

On Trump's other stated objectives and policies, I don't see much daylight between him and Vance. Their agreement is necessary, of course.

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My own view is that supporting Ukraine is NATO's logical way forward. It ties down the Russian army so it isn't attacking a NATO member. It is unclear Trump shares that view. 

I suspect Trump's believes the two combatants should settle for the status quo border and make it permanent. This is a deal Ukraine doesn't like but might accept in return for full NATO membership including Article 5 protections against further incursions. 

Whether Putin would sign onto a deal with that sweetener attached is a whole other question. It's very possible he would not as it would put NATO on another Russian border, some 340 miles from Moscow. Napoleon and Hitler made them nervous about neighbors they believe to be hostile.