I’ve been wondering when I’d read someone claiming Russians would solve their nation’s “Putin problem.” The first such claim has now appeared in this Project Syndicate article. After selecting a title made famous as the Stark family “words” of “winter is coming,” famed Swedish diplomat Carl Bildt concludes with this thought.
My guess is that Putin will remain holed up in his Kremlin fortress (and information bubble) through the winter in anticipation that his political strategy against Europe will succeed. Eventually, however, it will become clear even in Moscow that both the military and political strategies have failed. At that point, a radically new situation will emerge. Not only will it be obvious to everyone that Russia cannot win; it might even start to look as though Russia will lose the war that Putin started.At that point, Russia will have no choice but to put the profound strategic failure of the Putin regime in the past.
I wish I believed Russians were so pragmatic. But look at how long they suffered the indignities of Communism, before acting.
