Honoring Columbus

Tomorrow, October 12, is Columbus Day, the anniversary of the day on which Christopher Columbus - exploring on behalf of the Spanish crown - first set foot on the soil of the Western Hemisphere. His discovery of these two continents began their integration into the world community, which already included Asia, Europe, and Africa. 

It has become fashionable to view Columbus as a despoiler, a bad man. It is a fashion which I pointedly disavow, I honor his accomplishment.

At a time when the earth was not universally viewed as roughly spherical, it took enormous courage and leadership to sail west into a seemingly limitless ocean in hopes of reaching Asia and its spices. A route to Asia he did not discover, although others eventually would.

What he did discover has been of immense importance:  two large, rich continents with wildly diverse climates, terrains, and natural riches. Both were lightly populated with Neolithic peoples, some of whom were agriculturalists, many were hunter-gatherers.

Pundit Predicts Trump Landslide

Kevin McCullough writes opinion at Townhall, today he looks at the various indicators of what will happen when November’s votes are tallied. He argues, and I concur, that the polls are literally the only indicator which predict a Biden win. 

He then discusses several other indicators which strongly suggest a Trump landslide. If you’d like a mood lifter, you owe it to yourself to read his column. 

For those in a hurry or already enjoying as much euphoria as the law allows, I’ll just list the other indicators. McCullough cites evidence that Republicans are twice as likely as Democrats to conceal their true voting intentions. He cites hard-to-ignore evidence of a huge gap in voter enthusiasm, including the boat, truck, and car parades for Trump. He mentions Biden’s anemic ‘crowds.’ 

There is considerable evidence Trump is doing much better with Black and Hispanic voters than any Republican in recent memory. He adds in promises kept, where Trump has done very well, and also the booming economy Trump had going before the Chinese virus hit.

Is McCullough correct? We’ll know in a month, won’t we? I believe he makes a decent argument. Hat tip to Lucianne.com for the link.

Update

As “snowbirds” the DrsC regularly flee the high country at this time of year, and go where the snows of winter are found mainly atop high mountains. We just completed that trip, uneventfully. 

It is fun to see 80 mph speed limits posted on the ID and NV interstate highways. Towing an RV we don’t do 80, we try to hold it down to 70 until we reach CA where the max posted speed for any towed rig is 55 and by convention we can “get away with” 60.

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When we left WY, the aspens were in full gold glory, while the bluish-red maples were mostly gone. Most days were pleasant, but the nights were going below freezing. 

By dropping roughly 6000 ft. in altitude we effectively went backwards from high country late autumn to low country early autumn - very few deciduous trees here are anything but green. We’ll get our autumn leaves in late November. That’ll also be our first frost, if the year runs true to form.

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We noticed that, as we drove west, we saw more and more people wearing masks even when walking outside alone. You don’t see that much in the Rockies, except in chi-chi, touristy Jackson where Teton County has a “wear your mask” law and electric signs as you enter town reminding you to mask up. 

Speaking of Jackson, the famed “Billy burger” there is no more. The family which owned the series of restaurants which produced ‘em - Billy’s and then The Lift - has apparently retired. I wonder if the pandemic was the impetus?

We’ve found another burger purveyor we can recommend - Liberty Burger - located on Cache St. just a half block north of the town square. Very decent burgers, excellent shoestring fries, and a nice waitstaff. Their onion rings look spectacular but are in fact bland compared to, say, Outback’s “bloomin’ onion.”

Quick Link

Just a reminder to check out Steven Hayward’s The Week in Pictures over at the Power Line website. Much snarky humor lives there, mostly of a conservative political nature. The “comments” section is almost as good as the stuff Hayward posts.

Good News from Gallup

Findings from a recent Gallup poll of voters, you’re going to like them. The question was this: Are you better off than you were four years ago? The percentages at the end of the first four years for recent presidents:

Trump              56%
Obama            45%
Bush 43           47%
Bush 41           38%
Reagan            44%

For whatever reason, Gallup did not list a finding for Clinton, who held office for 8 years between Bush 41 and Bush 43.

They also report that people agree with Trump’s positions on issues, but prefer Biden’s manners - no surprise.

Update

If you noticed that I didn’t post yesterday, after the VP debate, it was because we were in a location with no WiFi connection. We are in transit from the high country down to the coastal lowlands where we winter.

From what I’ve read of that debate, Pence did the better job. This isn’t surprising, Kamala Harris has a track record of being a poor spokesperson for herself. After all, Harris was so uninspiring she dropped out of the race for the presidential nomination before a single vote was cast by anyone.

Given Biden’s age and frailty, his Veep could become our next president. Harris surpasses Obama in terms of personal shallowness and could be an even poorer president.

Pence on the other hand was an excellent governor and would make a good POTUS. As moderator, Susan Page did a better job than Chris Wallace, but was still clearly biased against Pence. 

Discounting the Youth Vote

Writing for RealClearPolitics, professor Samuel J. Abrams reports on the political opinions and motivation levels of Generation Z (18 to 29 year olds). This group prefers Biden 2 to 1 over Trump, and is expected to be a source of votes for Joe. However, the motivation levels of the Biden supporters are about half that of the Trump supporters. 

I don’t believe Abrams makes the point directly, but if there are twice as many who prefer Biden but care little for voting for him, and half as many who prefer Trump but are very motivated to vote for him, do the math. Trump could get half the votes cast by this group as many of those who prefer Biden view him very much as the slightly less bad of two evils. The money quote:

Do not assume that Gen Zers will vote this fall. Excitement for Biden is low and large numbers of Gen Zers already report that they do not intend to vote in November. Given the fact that survey data on vote intentions often over-report turnout intention, it is quite possible that participation will be far lower among our youngest cohort of voting-aged Americans.

The bad news in this article for Republicans is the young’s dislike for Biden is because he is insufficiently radical, not progressive enough. One has to suppose his very apparent age and lack of charisma are factors as well. 

Friedman: Not All Conflicts Matter

My current favorite writer on foreign affairs - George Friedman - appears at Geopolitical Futures. Today his topic is the change in U.S. foreign policy in the post-Cold War era. He observes:

During the Cold War, everything mattered to the United States, because the Soviets could and would exploit any opening. The Soviet Union was a global power, with a military second only to the United States’ and a covert capability that frequently put Washington in difficult situations.

But there is no threat from the Soviet Union today. Only some things now matter to Washington. (emphasis added) This is a shock to a world that expects the U.S. to take a leadership role, indifferent to the price the U.S. paid in the Cold War for taking the reins. Engaging globally carries with it a high price that can be paid when necessary but should be avoided when possible.

His point: it is now possible for the U.S. to ignore some world conflicts, including the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan. What happens there, while of life-and-death importance to the locals, is not an American problem, rightly understood. If we ever were, we are no longer the world’s police force a 911 call away.

The Samizdat Function

This morning on RealClearPolicy there’s a link to a Politico article with an intriguing title.

Why the right wing has a massive advantage on Facebook

More or less completely missing from the argument made there is the pervasive left wing bias in the legacy or “mainstream” media, including at Politico. It’s likely Facebook has become an outlet for viewpoints that are mostly unwelcome at The New York Times, Washington Post, Los Angeles Times, USA Today, Minneapolis Star Tribune, etc. as well as at the three main TV networks, plus CNN and MSNBC. 

I’d argue it is the “Fox News phenomenon” revisited. When half the populace only has one news channel which is sympathetic to their world view, it will be the ratings killer Fox routinely is. The other half is spread across everyplace else. 

With progressives controlling most media as tightly as did the old Soviet Union, the few places which permit right wing opinion become latter-day samizdat. No more nuanced explanation is needed.

Trouble in the Caucasus

The Russians and Turks are having another little proxy war. This time it’s between the Armenians (a client of Russia) and the Azerbaijanis (backed by Turkey). 

The fight is unlikely to spread beyond the two neighboring former SSRs but, like the war between the Serbs and Bosnians, it seems darned bitter and could end up killing a lot of people.

Something nobody wants to point out, as it was in the Balkans this one is also Christians vs. Muslims. These two groups rarely play well together for very long. 

Levels of Care

President Trump has gone home from the hospital, which is positive. Of course he can get better care at the White House than you and I could at a hospital. 

Speaking of which, the other DrC and I had a scare recently. She started feeling “off” and discovered she had a low fever, later that day I had the same experience. So we called our health provider who recommended we go to the drive-in Covid-19 testing site at our valley’s hospital. You can read a description of what transpired there here at her blog. It came out negative, no corona virus.

We asked the person administering the test what would be done if we showed up positive. She replied, “Well, it’s a virus so there really isn’t much we can do for it.” 

This happened before Trump went to the hospital and we read all the good stuff they did for him. She did mention that really serious cases were getting medevac to Idaho Falls, likely by helicopter. Last I checked our whole county has had exactly 1 Covid fatality. My guess is local doctors haven’t treated very much of it.

Another Brick in the Wall

The last day of the Obama administration, an email with attached letter was sent by the outgoing White House counsel to a list of recipients. WND reports copy of that email has been pried loose via the FOIA by American Center for Law and Justice. Hat tip to Lucianne.com for the link.

ACLJ writes:

We sent a FOIA request regarding former FBI Director Comey's spies inside the White House: Anthony Ferrante, Jordan Rae Kelly, and Tashina Gauhar. It's important to remember that one of those was the liaison to the FBI. One held a tech job and somehow got to stay in the White House. And one was at the National Security Council.

ACLJ reports many names on the distribution list are blacked out but two are not: former FBI Director James Comey and former Deputy FBI Director Andrew McCabe. ACLJ has been unable to get a copy of the attached letter as it is classified. They are suing to get it.

This letter could be as innocuous as thanks for your service, good luck in your new endeavors. Or it could be more of the “spy on Trump” stuff they’re known for, along the lines of “keep your head down, your eyes open and the info flowing.” 

The letter’s classified nature argues for the latter. The ‘Comeycrats apparently viewed the incoming Trump administration as the equivalent of Nazi occupiers and they styled themselves after the French “resistance” complete with stay-behind moles. 

They were self-deluded freaks, I suppose. Something of a cult, playing at mock heroics. I hope they have enough self-awareness to be embarrassed at how silly their antics and comments appear in hindsight.

President Hospitalized

Late today the news is reporting President Trump will shift his base of operations to Walter Reed Military Medical Complex. It is being done "out of an abundance of caution," a spox called it. According to one source I scanned, they're throwing the medicine chest at him: Vitamin D, Zinc, antibodies, antivirals, the whole enchilada. 

If I catch the dadgum corona virus I hope I get half as good care as Trump will. Which, by the way, is exactly as it should be. He is our nation's elected President and I'm lucky if a few of you "elect" to read COTTonLINE. 

The cautious consensus is that Trump should survive Covid-19, inasmuch as he has good stamina and appears healthy. All people of good will wish him a speedy recovery. Sadly, there are many others who do not. On them, I hope karma works its magic.

Possible Good News

Investor's Business Daily hired the TIPP polling organization to do a post-debate look at voter preferences. Their poll still shows Biden with a narrow lead, he leads President Trump 48.6% to 45.9%. Which puts Biden 2.7 percentage points ahead.

On the other hand, they also found this:

Despite Biden's polling edge, just 36% of voters expect him to win, while 45% think Trump will prevail. Meanwhile, 46% think most of their neighbors will vote for Trump, while 36% think their neighbors will mostly back Biden.

Of this finding, Power Line's Steven Hayward writes:

When people say “I think my neighbor is voting for Trump,” is usually means that the respondent is voting for Trump. Clever pollsters have been asking this question for a while now, and the pollsters who weighted for this in 2016 were closer to getting the outcome correct.

I remain cautiously optimistic. The 2016 polls said Clinton would win, Trump won. Now the 2020 polls say Biden will win, and he may. My advice: don't bet the farm on it. 

More people expect another Trump win. Incumbent presidents seeking reelection are seldom defeated. And as Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight observed and we quoted: 

The Electoral College is not really *safe* for Biden unless he wins by 5+.

A 2.7% lead is half that, definitely not safe. 

Trump’s Rap

Musing about the Trump rally phenomenon, I had a “maybe” insight. Suppose the shtick The Donald does on that stage is the functional equivalent of rap or hip-hop aimed instead at a mostly white audience? 

Okay, there isn’t the syncopation and rhyming, and there’s less swearing and misogyny so it’s not cultural appropriation. But there is the same braggadocio, the exaggeration, the excessive masculinity, the boasting pride, and the recitation of victories.

Maybe I’m all wet, but there does seem to be something similar going on, yes? He certainly draws huge, enthusiastic crowds that Joe Biden must envy.

A Place of Contradictions

I need to share with you the introductory paragraph of a Joel Kotkin article for New Geography about how California got so messed up.

One is often at a loss to explain California to people from other planets—like, say, earth. This is a state that issues mandates for electrification of everything while reducing its generating capacity. It blames devastating fires on climate change, without taking the blame for forestry practices that helped make the seasonal fires much worse. In California, pot is legal, but owning a car with a gas engine, however clean, may soon not be, and climate skeptics of any stripe face opprobrium, consignment to obscurity, and—if they have assets—court dates.

Kotkin explains how we got into the fix we’re in. Nobody seems to have a clue how we extricate ourselves from the corner into which we’ve painted ourselves. 

As a CA native and still part-time resident, I miss the can-do days of Gov. Edmund G. “Pat” Brown - loser Moonbeam Jerry’s dad. He built the dams, aqueducts, universities, and highways we still use, and could use more of (except the universities which we later overbuilt).

Hang In There

Many sources are reporting President Trump and wife Melania have announced they’ve tested positive for Covid-19. The personal and political implications of this are unknown, but potentially many. 

The President is in his 70s which puts him at higher-than-average risk for serious consequences. His experience of the corona virus could be anything from symptom-free to fatal. 

Coming as it does during the final month of a presidential reelection campaign poses additional risks. He will be very tempted to over-do his activities and consequently get sicker. 

Not overdoing will put extra pressure on surrogates who will campaign on his behalf. There go the ‘patented’ Trump rallies, I fear.  The crowds won’t turn out for surrogates, he’s the star they come to see.

Did we need this, America? 2020 has certainly been a downer year for the world, for our nation, and for our President. I wish it, us, and him in particular a speedy and complete recovery. And I totally hope VP Pence stays healthy. If you have the gift of faith, prayers would be good idea.

Pardon Obama

Politico magazine asks the question:

Is Prosecuting a Former President Worth It?

It has never been done, but the leftists who dominate the discussion at Politico seem to believe Trump has crossed a red line somewhere and might therefore be an exception.

The article doesn't mention what I believe is the main reason to give ex-presidents effective immunity. If we stop doing so, one of them - facing prosecution - will refuse to leave office. 

Prosecuting former leaders raises the stakes to the point where a leader literally cannot survive losing an election and still remain in his country in retirement. It is a very third world kind of behavior. 

Fear of prosecution is the reason third world leaders corruptly stash stolen fortunes in Switzerland or the Caymans. It is so they can live abroad in luxurious exile if forced to flee.

We're doing too much third world shtick now, let's not add prosecuting presidents out of office. Much as Nixon conspired to cover up a crime, Ford did the right thing in pardoning him. 

I think President Trump should pardon ex-president Obama. Imagine the heads exploding if he did so, starting with Obama's. 

Over Exposure?

If Donald Trump loses the upcoming election, it may be because he was hard to ignore. At the same point 8 years ago Barack Obama was essentially as popular as Trump. 

As we all know, Obama was reelected. The difference, as the pseudonymous Allahpundit writes at the Hot Air site, is that Trump’s disapproval level is higher. 

Obama was easier to ignore, something those of us who experienced him as a cipher did with ease. When you looked at the news, not every story was about Obama. He was less consequential.

Reality TV star Trump somehow makes every story about himself. I suspect if he loses his bid for reelection, we will write that the voters grew tired of him.

When I approach Trump overdose levels, I tune him out. Perhaps many grow tired of making that effort.

Deer in Headlights

Moderator Chris Wallace on Tuesday night’s debate, per The Daily Wire.

“I’m just sad with the way last night turned out,” Wallace said in a phone interview with The New York Times about the first square-off between President Donald Trump and Democratic nominee Joe Biden. He further characterized the tense 90-minute back-and-forth as “a terrible missed opportunity.”

Wallace should be sad. He had an opportunity to do his career some good; instead he did it harm, and he knows it. The spotlight was on him, and he appeared to be a wuss. That’s not a good look.