Investor's Business Daily hired the TIPP polling organization to do a post-debate look at voter preferences. Their poll still shows Biden with a narrow lead, he leads President Trump 48.6% to 45.9%. Which puts Biden 2.7 percentage points ahead.
On the other hand, they also found this:
Despite Biden's polling edge, just 36% of voters expect him to win, while 45% think Trump will prevail. Meanwhile, 46% think most of their neighbors will vote for Trump, while 36% think their neighbors will mostly back Biden.
Of this finding, Power Line's Steven Hayward writes:
When people say “I think my neighbor is voting for Trump,” is usually means that the respondent is voting for Trump. Clever pollsters have been asking this question for a while now, and the pollsters who weighted for this in 2016 were closer to getting the outcome correct.
I remain cautiously optimistic. The 2016 polls said Clinton would win, Trump won. Now the 2020 polls say Biden will win, and he may. My advice: don't bet the farm on it.
More people expect another Trump win. Incumbent presidents seeking reelection are seldom defeated. And as Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight observed and we quoted:
The Electoral College is not really *safe* for Biden unless he wins by 5+.
A 2.7% lead is half that, definitely not safe.
