The Federalist reports the results of the Claremont Institute and the Texas Public Policy Foundation collaboration to war-game the possible outcomes of the Nov. 3 election. They find three likely outcomes.
The first two are clear wins by either Trump or Biden. Even these will not be known for some days or weeks as mail-in ballots are counted and adjudicated.
The third and most fraught outcome is the proverbial “big mess.” In this outcome everything is in chaos, in controversy, and subject to lawsuit, and endless appeals. They describe this third (and least desirable) outcome as follows:
An ambiguous result, with the final election results of several states delayed and subject to intense court fights resulting in a struggle right up to the Jan. 6 joint session of Congress where the ballots of the electors are unsealed. Uncertainty could extend even beyond this as decisions for both the presidency and vice presidency are battled out in Congress and before the U.S. Supreme Court.
And what if this happens, how will it unfold?
- Regardless of the outcome, the winner isn’t likely to be known on election night.
- The large number of mail-in ballots may prove hard to validate in many states, as systems have not been prepared to process the ballots and count them, while tremendous pressure will be brought to bypass safeguards against fraud and produce results.
- When employed, the legal system will be up to the task of adjudicating disputes over election results.
- There is a significant chance for unrest, stoked by a dominant corporate media in which the American people have lost trust; internet giants actively deciding what information to allow the public to see; domestic opponents to America’s constitutional system, and by foreign powers, mainly the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and Russia.
Plus:
- If the contest doesn’t produce a majority (50 percent plus 1) of the votes of seated electors by Jan. 6, there are clearly established constitutional procedures to determine a victor.
- There are two areas of uncertainty at the late stage of a contested election:
- Each house determines the final election results of its membership. This means the Democratic majority in the U.S. House might decide not to seat duly elected Republican members to prevent the Republicans from holding a 26-seat majority in the state delegations if they, with one vote per state, are used to determine the president if no candidate has the needed absolute majority of seated electors’ votes. Given that the majority’s power to determine the membership of the body, House or Senate, is absolute, the sole check on the use of this political power is the potentially dire consequences of its abuse.
- Should the results be undetermined through Jan. 20, Inauguration Day, the Succession Act would suggest that the speaker of the House would become acting president until one is determined and, if the House cannot decide, then elevating the vice president, even if selected out of the Senate.
Please join me in hoping we don’t go down this third path, which appears to lead to unimagined anguish, and possible civil war.
