Thursday, October 22, 2020

Good News

The Washington Examiner reports pro-Trump movement of two recent polls which, four years ago, proved predictive of the outcome. See what’s happening.

Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden, who led President Trump by 12 points just two weeks ago, has seen his lead tumble to just 3 points in the much-watched Rasmussen Reports survey.

In its weekly “White House Watch,” Biden leads Trump, 49%-46%. It was the first time in a month of Rasmussen head-to-head polls that Biden fell below 50%.

The poll echoes another out on Wednesday, the IDB/TIPP survey, that had the race even tighter, 48.1% for Biden to 45.6% for Trump.

The IDB/TIPP poll is often described as one that called the 2016 race. Rasmussen was the one that got the popular vote percentage right between Hillary Clinton and Trump.

If the race is polling this close, it likely means Trump is in fact ahead. Particularly because he is the only candidate with large numbers who actually favor him. 

I continue to be cautiously optimistic about the outcome but pessimistic about the chances for domestic tranquility in the aftermath. It’s likely ‘Biden’s Brownshirts’ (Antifa, who actually wear black like Mussolini’s goons) will tear up a number of cities if/when he loses.