I've been reading a variety of articles discussing the possible existence this election season of "shy" Trump voters, which there is reason to believe exist as they did four years ago. Supposedly they don't want to tell a stranger on the phone that they'll vote for Trump.
This caused me to think of another factor biasing telephone polling. Do you get a lot of "junk" or "spam" calls? I certainly do.
Do you answer calls whose calling number your phone does not 'recognize,' who aren't in your address book? If the caller's name is shown and it is someone with whom I'd like to speak, I do.
Otherwise, if no name is shown or it's someone I don't know, I just let it ring. Therefore I will not be a respondent to a telephone poll as I'll never take their call. I figure there are millions like me, what do you think?
Maybe it is time to begin ignoring opinion polling as we've known it. I believe a huge chunk of the populace is unlikely to ever be included in their samples, rendering the polls invalid. This was true in 2016, let's see what happens in 2020.
I guess it could be possible to somehow determine how the "don't answer" bias is distributed in the populace and weight the sample accordingly. I'm certain those who've made a career out of polling will try to rescue the art form, I wish them luck.
Maybe the turnout at rallies is the best measure of voter enthusiasm and motivation, we should know in a week or so.
