Breitbart, which favors Trump, reports the results of a poll that tried to get beyond the "shy voter" problem. USC Dornlife asked people who their friends and neighbors would vote for. In contrast to their "who will you vote for" results which favored Biden, asked about their associates' votes they answered Trump.
Using this same method today, USC says “it’s looking like an Electoral College loss for Biden” — with Trump only down by four or five points nationally.
Finally, there is one pollster taking a similar approach to the USC Dornlife “social desirability” question, and that’s Trafalgar, who made some tough calls in 2016 and got a lot right. Trafalgar currently has Trump up by just under a point in Pennsylvania, up by three in North Carolina, up two in Michigan, down by only a point in Wisconsin, up two in Florida, and up four in Arizona. If Trump wins those states, he wins re-election.
So ... there is reason to hope, if not for wild optimism, and to vote to reelect.
