Writing for RealClearPolitics, professor Samuel J. Abrams reports on the political opinions and motivation levels of Generation Z (18 to 29 year olds). This group prefers Biden 2 to 1 over Trump, and is expected to be a source of votes for Joe. However, the motivation levels of the Biden supporters are about half that of the Trump supporters.
I don’t believe Abrams makes the point directly, but if there are twice as many who prefer Biden but care little for voting for him, and half as many who prefer Trump but are very motivated to vote for him, do the math. Trump could get half the votes cast by this group as many of those who prefer Biden view him very much as the slightly less bad of two evils. The money quote:
Do not assume that Gen Zers will vote this fall. Excitement for Biden is low and large numbers of Gen Zers already report that they do not intend to vote in November. Given the fact that survey data on vote intentions often over-report turnout intention, it is quite possible that participation will be far lower among our youngest cohort of voting-aged Americans.
The bad news in this article for Republicans is the young’s dislike for Biden is because he is insufficiently radical, not progressive enough. One has to suppose his very apparent age and lack of charisma are factors as well.
