A new poll by Zogby Analytics finds a majority of those polled believe Trump will win the election in November. The data: Trump, 51%, Biden, 43%, Someone else, 6%.
You might well ask why this question is important, why asking people with no particular expertise to predict something is relevant? Here is the wording of the question: “Regardless of who you support politically, who do you think will win the 2020 presidential election?”
This is a canny attempt to get beyond the “social desirability bias” issue. The theory is that a fair number of people are uncomfortable admitting they’ll vote for Trump.
The question’s wording is designed to bypass that discomfort. The idea is that people are willing to malign unspecified others but not themselves.
If it “worked,” then a majority of voters plan to vote for Trump while some number won’t admit that reality to a stranger. Given the “ cancel culture” abroad in the land, those who won’t admit favoring Trump may be the realists, or at least the only mildly paranoid.
I’m not certain how 6% can imagine someone else winning. Perhaps they are the real paranoids, perhaps they hope the Dems will nominate someone else as Biden stumbles into senility, or maybe it is their version of “no comment.”
