Monday, June 8, 2020

Weird Political Science

Writing the Intelligencer column at New York magazine, Jonathan Chait reports the findings of a study using historical data to show that rioting and looting moves swing voters to vote Republican. Omar Wasow, a prof at Princeton, finds:
Nonviolent civil-rights protests did not trigger a national backlash, but that violent protests and looting did. The physical damage inflicted upon poor urban neighborhoods by rioting does not have the compensating virtue of easing the way for more progressive policies; instead, it compounds the damage by promoting a regressive backlash.
One thing’s sure, President Trump is gonna hope Wasow did his sums correctly. Historical precedents are great as long as they are predictive, terribly misleading when they aren’t. We’ll see how the current “troubles” have influenced voting in less than 5 months.

Ironically, the article is dated May 21 - four days before George Floyd was killed on May 25 - and therefore before the current riots and looting took place. Would you guess NYmag is wishing they hadn’t run it? They haven’t yet taken it down.

Hat tip to Instapundit for the link. The link to Wasow’s work in Chait’s article is no longer functional, I bet Wasow took down his end, concerned he‘ll get slammed by his left wing colleagues and students.

Talk about monumental bad timing. I predict Wasow will not get tenure at Princeton.