An article at Zero Hedge argues that the hoped-for V-shaped economic recovery isn't happening. We'll see. Maybe the most important thing it predicts for the longer term is that commercial real estate will be hurt, perhaps badly, by the work-at-home trend triggered by the Covid-19 pandemic.
We have observed the possible impact of this; firms will conclude they can save money by having people work from home. Let the employee provide the workspace, instead of the company paying for it.
I can imagine the office space of the future having a much reduced footprint, with emphasis on conference rooms where groups will perhaps hold a weekly meeting lasting perhaps half a day or less. Perhaps a small nucleus or cadre will actually be present in a face-to-face setting, perhaps not.
What will become of the hundreds of acres of office space now in place? Much will be converted to ... what? Apartments? For whom? To storage? Maybe. To homeless housing? Maybe, if the value drops far enough.
If people work from home, city apartments will be less attractive too. If a "worker bee" only goes into the office every week or two, why live in a high-rise? If the downtown population drops, many restaurants and shops will fold.
It's likely fortunes will be lost, perhaps including Trump's - based on urban real estate holdings. I don't believe we're able to predict where this will end up, maybe with derelict cities of which Detroit is a leading indicator.
The current speculative move could well be property in distant green suburbs and exurbs. There's always money to be made, if you guess correctly the future direction. Obviously, all of the above is guesswork, no guarantees.
