Wednesday, September 4, 2019

Decoupling

Power Line links to a National Interest article concerning Trump's trade war with the Chinese. Author Gordon G. Chang argues that Trump aims to decouple the U.S. and Chinese economies, and that he is making real progress at doing so. Chang writes:
The course of history, in the view of many, is that China will rise to dominate this century. That’s not how the 45th president sees things, however. Trump, unlike his four immediate predecessors, does not seem to be particularly concerned about the welfare of China’s Communist Party. And unlike two—and maybe all three—of his three immediate predecessors, he is not trying to manage American decline.

Trump asserts U.S. power, and to borrow his new slogan, his goal is to “Keep America Great.” Yes, that phrase is vague, but the policy decisions of the Trump administration evidence a goal of frustrating Chinese ambitions across the board.

The free fall worries many and angers policy elites, but an irreversible weakening of a predatory communist state looks like a good thing to everyone else. After all, why should the world help fund a Chinese system that is not compatible with the notions that underpin global commerce?

Market participants never like disruptive policies, but a reordering of global trade is now occurring and that will change history. That, for Donald John Trump, is what winning looks like.
When in 1940-41 FDR took somewhat similar steps toward an on-the-make Japan, the result was Pearl Harbor and our entry into WW II. Do you suppose China wants to go that route? I hope they're smarter than that, but perhaps I give them too much credit.