Regular readers know we’re interested in population migrations.
The Atlantic reports what’s been happening to our nation’s three largest cities: New York, Los Angeles, and Chicago. In a word, they’ve been
shrinking.
In 2018, the New York City area lost more than 100,000 people to other cities and suburbs—that’s 277 people leaving every day. The Los Angeles and Chicago areas lost, respectively, 201 and 161 residents each day. It’s quite a change from the post–Great Recession period, when an urban renaissance was supposedly sweeping the country and all three metro areas were experiencing a population boomlet.
Historically, this outflow has been counteracted by foreign immigration, but that inflow has dropped dramatically. Thus, the three great metros are shrinking. And where are those leavers going?
They are mostly moving toward sun and some semblance of affordability. The major Texas metros—Houston, Dallas, San Antonio, and Austin—have collectively grown by more than 3 million since 2010. The most popular destinations for movers are now Phoenix, Dallas, and Las Vegas, which welcome more than 100,000 new people each year.
Much of this moving is from high-tax to lower-tax states where a salary goes farther in buying the accouterments of a middle-class lifestyle. For example:
California’s population growth has slowed to its lowest rate in state history. This might have something to do with the recent tax law, which, in capping the state and local deductions, effectively raised the cost of living in these places for the upper-middle class. (The next few years will tell us more about whether high earners are fleeing high-tax metros for the South, as well.)
Classical reference in title (the
theme from
Rawhide).
Keep movin', movin', movin'
Though they're disapprovin'
Keep them dogies movin'
Rawhide!
