Trende’s Trends

I suppose we must take some interest in whom the Democrats will nominate for president in 2020. Looking toward the next ‘debate’ of 10 aspirants which happens tonight, I give you a link to the work of Sean Trende, who does good political analysis for RealClearPolitics.

The “stock-pickers” screen he uses in a crowded field is relatively simple:

My usual “buy/sell/hold” take, which asks whether I think the polling and conventional wisdom overstate or understate the likelihood that the candidate becomes the Democratic nominee.

It’s clear he views those labeled “buy” as undervalued, those labeled “sell” as overvalued, and the “holds” as appropriately valued by the conventional wisdom. Here’s the short version of his predictions, each of which his column explains:

Joe Biden: Sell
Elizabeth Warren: Buy
Bernie Sanders: Hold
Beto O’Rourke: Sell
Kamala Harris: Buy
Everyone else: Hold
Brokered convention: Buy

I’m inclined to disagree with his evaluation of Harris, whom I rate “hold” as she has too often screwed up and had to “clarify.” Otherwise, I’d rate the field pretty much as he’s noted.

BTW, I doubt the DNC will allow a brokered convention. Expect them to do what they did four years ago; put their thumb on the scale to insure the convention is a coronation, not a cage match.