Wednesday, July 15, 2020

Is NATO on Life Support?

Our press isn’t covering the issue, since the U.S. hasn’t taken sides, but two members of NATO - France and Turkey - are backing opposites sides in the civil war happening in Libya. Project Syndicate has the story.

You’ll remember this is the civil war Hillary Clinton triggered as SecState in the Obama administration. She backed the ouster of long-time leader Gaddafi after which the country split into warring factions which seemingly have fought to a draw

Project Syndicate takes the view that we are seeing the slow-motion death of NATO and that its death is a bad thing. I’m guessing what we’re seeing is the beginning of the end of Turkey’s membership in NATO. Ataturk’s secular Turkey was a good fit in NATO, Erdogan’s Islamic Turkey is not.

The U.S. isn’t leaving NATO, but it does want member states to take their own defense seriously. Which is to say that we’re tired of paying for the defense of affluent countries which can afford to do so themselves.

I suppose implicit in the article referenced is that, at the end of the day, several affluent European NATO countries will never muster the political will to make a sustained, well-funded defense effort (looking at you, Germany). In the absence of which, the U.S. may eventually negotiate a new mutual defense pact with that subset of countries which can muster the effort, and abandon NATO. I’d guess this exit, if it happens, is several years, perhaps a decade, away.