Thursday, July 23, 2020

Polling You'll Like

We've been trashing polls as unreliable but here is one you'll like, given that people don't feel free to admit their political preferences. The Washington Examiner reports Rasmussen Reports finds:
A week after finding that Trump closed a 10-point gap with Biden to just 3 points, Rasmussen Reports today revealed that Trump has edged up another point as Biden hits a ceiling.

On Wednesday, the race stood at 45% for Trump and 47% for Biden, well within the poll’s margin of error.

Separately, Rasmussen said that Trump has boosted his approval rating to 49%, with 50% of respondents disapproving.

What’s more, at this stage of his presidency, former President Barack Obama also had a 49% approval rating and went on to win reelection with 51% of the vote.
We'll have to see what happens after Biden announces his VP pick, a bounce is traditional. These tend to be short-lived.

Be aware, Rasmussen polls likely voters. Most pollsters poll registered voters until a few weeks before the election when they switch to likely voters. Likely voters give more predictive results.