The felicitously named Sean Trende does political trend analysis for RealClearPoliitics. Today he declares that, as it stands now, Trump must be declared the clear favorite to beat Biden. Really … no kidding.
Having declared it, Trende sets out to prove it to skeptics and does a darned good job. Good, that is, unless you hold the view all opinion polling is pseudo-science, the equivalent of reading tea leaves. In most polls Trump is farther ahead of his opponent than he has ever been in any race.
It isn’t as if one of these gentlemen is an unknown, untried commodity, we’ve experienced both as president. Our country had a better time with Trump in the White House, than we’ve had with Biden on the beach in Delaware. Which means the polling should come out exactly as it has done, with most voting their perceived self-interest.
Obviously this far from Election Day much can change in the interim.