I have written that peace could be achieved in Ukraine with current territorial positions frozen in place IF the remaining Ukraine were given NATO membership including Article 5 protections and a path to membership in the EU. Each side would get much to like and have to swallow some that’s disliked in such a deal.
Writing for Asia Times, Stefan Wolff more or less reaches the same conclusion. He writes:
More than half of the Ukrainians polled reject any deal that includes territorial compromises and simultaneously requires the country to forego Nato membership. But between 47% and 57% were willing to accept different degrees of territorial concessions to Russia if Ukraine can join the transatlantic alliance and receive security guarantees.
The downside for NATO in this deal is that once fighting ends in Ukraine the Russian army becomes available again to threaten NATO member states. Such threat has not been the case since the attack on Ukraine 2.5 years ago.
