COTTonLINE has followed Brexit somewhat, although not obsessively. Politico.EU has a useful article laying out the current state-of-play in negotiations between the U.K. and EU. The article concludes May has few good options.
One thing never mentioned, because you’re supposed to remember it, is that the only thing keeping Theresa May in the PM’s chair is the coalition support of a unionist party in Northern Ireland. May’s Tories don’t have a parliamentary majority without their support.
Northern Ireland doesn’t want a return to the enforced border between their territory and that of the Republic of Ireland, having become accustomed to open Schengen-style transit between the two polities. Lose that openness and they leave May’s coalition, bringing down her government.
Keeping an open border with any part of the EU is anathema to most of those Brits who voted for Brexit. Their underlying motive: get control of immigration and greatly reduce it.
An open border between the two Irelands with no further movement controls would be the open door through which migrants would pour into the U.K. May is damned if she does, and damned if she doesn’t.
If May does what those who voted for Brexit want, she loses her coalition and the government falls. If she keeps an open border in Ireland she gives up sovereignty over Northern Ireland, basically ceding it to the EU, again, the coalition dies and her government falls. There appears no way to square the circle, short of new elections which she might well lose.
To do what those who voted for Brexit want, she needs an absolute Tory majority so she can close the border between the Irelands, even though the Northern Irish won’t like it. I suspect her polling indicates holding new elections wouldn’t produce a Tory majority obviating the need for coalition. Hence, checkmate.
