There are rumors out of Australia that Trump plans to bomb Iran’s nuclear sites next month, and that Oz will have a role, somehow. The rumors are attributed to high level defense officials there, speaking off the record. Meanwhile their PM denies it.
This, it seems to me, is classic Trump. He has figured out a way to get the ayatollahs in a sweat while doing basically nothing. They may decide they’d rather not go to war and prefer to negotiate instead. Would you be surprised if this was his intent? Not I.
Do I think he plans a war? Nope. Can they be sure? Nope. If he decided to do it could he make them look weak, and do they know it? Yep. If asked, he’ll respond that we don’t talk about what we might do before it happens.
Aside: It doesn’t hurt that we’ve become the world’s biggest oil and gas producer, not much dependent on Gulf oil. Obama’s “we can’t drill our way to energy independence” looks foolish in the rear view mirror, since we’ve done just that.
When we had the world’s biggest, most capable military and promised everyone no-first-use, was it a deterrent? Maybe. Did it give us international clout? Not much.
Now with a president who might send in the bombers, cruise missiles, and special forces, who has done so in Syria and elsewhere, is the threat of our military giving us leverage? Clearly.
Let’s call this “Godfather diplomacy,” demanding “respect” and making troublesome others offers “they can’t refuse.”
Later ... the other DrC says maybe call it a new “brinkmanship,” which fits. It’s a term from the Cold War John Foster Dulles era which she’s too young to remember clearly.
