Looking at the past two decades of presidential elections, the white share of the popular vote has decreased for Democratic candidates (with the exception of Barack Obama’s 2008 bid). Bill Clinton won 49 percent of the white vote on 1996, Al Gore won 43 percent in 2000, John Kerry won 41 percent in 2004, Barack Obama won 43 percent in 2008 and 39 percent in 2012, while Hillary Clinton won 39 percent in 2016.That looks like a downward trend line to me as a long-time social scientist. Henderson cites evidence the Rust Belt states which voted for Trump have been trending away from Dems. since before Trump.
Henderson also notes the development of ethnic-group-specific political parties in places like Malaysia and the Netherlands. He speculates their possible development here, as spin-offs from the identity-group-loving Democrats.
We need to remember many things in our political system are stacked against third parties. Barriers which don't exist to the same extent in parliamentary systems like those he cited.
