Writing at the website 19fortyfive.com, professor Robert Kelly concludes that the most likely long-term scenario for Ukraine is that Russia will eventually get tired of expending resources and people fighting in Ukraine, and go home.
What he should have added, but didn’t, is that this is unlikely to happen as long as V. Putin survives in office. It is difficult to see how Putin could withdraw Russian forces from Ukraine and either continue as leader of Russia or retire. Most scenarios for a Russian exit involve Putin’s death from natural or unnatural causes.
Furthermore, Putin understands this equation better than anyone. His continued survival depends on the war continuing or being won by his forces.
Elected Lyndon Johnson could walk away from the Vietnam war and retire in disgrace. Joe Biden was disgraced by our exit from Afghanistan but continues in office. Autocrats tend not to be afforded this luxury; living by the sword, they often die the same way, if nature doesn’t take them sooner.
