Mark Penn is chairman of The Harris Poll, and has advised political campaigns. Today he writes for The Messenger about 5 trends he sees in presidential politics in the run-up to 2024. My summary of his views:
Culture Wars: Hard-fought, slight edge to Dems
Justice Wars: Hunter vs. Trump, edge to GOP
Hispanic and Suburban Swing Voters: Hispanics go GOP, Suburbs go Dem if Trump, GOP if other
Fed Wild Card: Probably helps Dems
Party vs. Candidate: Party if Biden vs. Trump, Candidate if others
Penn’s summary conclusion:
So far, the Republicans and the Democrats each have an edge on two of these categories; the last one hangs in the balance, depending upon how the 2024 primary season shakes out.
My sense: Penn may undervalue the electorate’s GOP edge in culture wars. “Grooming” kids is way offensive and genital mutilation of them even worse. Ditto males in women’s sports.
