Friday, December 22, 2023

A Path for Haley?

Writing at The Messenger, Joe Concha makes an argument summarized as “There’s Only One Way That Nikki Haley Can Hope to Beat Trump.” Here is the nub.

The only way she gets within true striking distance is in a two-way race. And the only way that happens is if — and this is a BIG “if" — DeSantis, Christie and Vivek Ramaswamy drop out after Iowa. One would suspect that almost all of the double-digit support both DeSantis and Christie are receiving would go to Haley, not Trump, with Ramaswamy's 5% likely splitting into a wash. And since Democrats and independents can vote in New Hampshire in a GOP primary, that could propel Haley further.

No question, Christie support would go to Haley, but DeSantis has sold himself at the true Trump heir, minus the personal drama and thus more electable. Most of his support would go to Trump as the polls begin to show Trump still plenty electable, at least against Biden. People weird enough to support Ramaswamy could go anywhere or nowhere. Independents could like Haley a lot, especially independent women.

I don’t see a lot of help for Haley beyond the real support she now already has in NH. So, I conclude, her chances for the nomination aren’t good, even though she might be very formidable in the general election.

Asians might break right. It is fascinating we have two Indian-Americans as GOP candidates, sort of  a “we’ll see your Kamala with Nikki. and raise you a Vivek.”