Political insider Karl Rove makes predictions for the Wall Street Journal each year, and reviews how he did the previous year. His winning percentage for 2023 was 62.5%, down from 74.2% for 2022.
Here are his predictions for 2024, and they’re not behind the WSJ paywall. Since his shtick is politics, I will share with you his best guess for the race for president, while reminding you he is a Bushie who doesn’t like Trump.
Biden vs. Trump is a chaotic, nasty mess. Mr. Biden counts on Mr. Trump being convicted and voters adjusting to inflation’s effects. Mr. Trump counts on anger over a politicized justice system and Mr. Biden’s age and mental capacity.
Most vote for whom they hate or fear less. Mr. Trump is convicted before November yet wins the election while Mr. Biden receives a plurality of the popular vote.
The race is settled by fewer than 25,000 votes in each of four or fewer states. Third-party candidates get more votes in those states than Mr. Trump’s margin over Mr. Biden. God help our country.
The House flips Democratic. The Senate goes the other way, but knucklehead Republicans lose two or three winnable races.
Hot damn, that all sounds like fun, especially if you can ignore the downside for “our country.” I view politics as a spectator sport, and I cheer for one of the teams.
