Monday, December 25, 2023

Market Crash Predicted

The Daily Mail has the prediction of U.S. economist Harry Dent that the economy will have a big downswing in the coming year 2024. Dent is a newsletter editor, mutual fund manager, and author of several books.

If I'm right, it is going to be the biggest crash of our lifetime, most of it happening in 2024. Since 2009, this has been 100 percent artificial, unprecedented money printing and deficits; $27 trillion over 15 years, to be exact. This is off the charts, 100 percent artificial, which means we're in a dangerous state.

He may be right, of course. Market-driven economies do suffer booms and busts. One feature of being someone like Dent is that, if you predict a bust and it then happens more or less as you predicted it, your reputation as an economics maven will last for a long time. 


I remember the late Marty Zweig who appeared often on Louis Rukeyser's Wall $treet Week program on PBS in the 1980s and 90s,

It was on that very program that he stated on 16 October 1987, that he was deeply worried and did not like what he saw in the stock market. The 1987 stock market crash occurred on 19 October 1987.

The 16th was a Friday, the PBS program aired after the market closed. The 19th was a Monday, when trading resumed. No one else of any note predicted that crash. Zweig nailed it, and it brought him fame that never truly evaporated. 

Harry Dent may be trying for the same kind of "moon shot" career-builder. Of course, the Fed Open Market Committee hopes to prove him wrong with their interest rate adjustments aimed at a "soft landing" - that being defined as stopping inflation without causing a recession.