Date %Repubs %Indeps %DemsI've cited the data points for the last two elections and the current numbers. There are more Republicans and Independents today than there were during the last two elections. Independents split about evenly, half lean one way, half the other.
2019 Jul 1-12 29 38 27
2018 Nov 1-11 28 39 31
2016 Nov 1-6 27 36 31
More important, there are fewer Democrats now. It could be a result of the lackluster group of would-be nominees they've mustered. Can you say "charisma deficit?"
If you add 29 + (38/2) the GOP gets 48% while 27 + (38/2) gives the Dems 46%. If the undecideds split evenly, stay home or vote Green, Trump is reelected.